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重温经典-巴菲特:《Buy American. I AM.》
2022-03-27 10:54 | 来源:未知 | 作者:admin

 2008年10月16号,巴菲特在《纽约时报》上发表文章——《Buy American. I AM.》,全文如下:

 
THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad。Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher。In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary。
 
So 。。。I‘ve been buying American stocks。This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds。(This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy。) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities。
 
Why?
 
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful。And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors。To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions。But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nations many sound companies make no sense。These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have。But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now。
 
Let me be clear on one point: I can‘t predict the short-term movements of the stock market。I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now。What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up。So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over。
 
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932。Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D。Roosevelt took office in March 1933。By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent。Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific。The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned。Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank。In short, bad news is an investor‘s best friend。It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price。
 
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good。In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts;the Depression;a dozen or so recessions and financial panics;oil shocks;a flu epidemic;and the resignation of a disgraced president。Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497。
 
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain。But some investors did。The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy。
 
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable。They shouldnt。They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value。Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts。
 
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree。Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later。In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzkys advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been。”
 
I don‘t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term。Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was。” Today my money and my mouth both say equities。
 
翻译如下:
 
《买入美国,正当时》
 
这场危机起始于美国金融领域并迅速扩散至全球。在很短的时间内,最初仅存在于金融领域的问题蔓延到宏观经济的各个领域,危机如今已成井喷之势。从短期来看,失业率将继续上升、商业活动将继续衰退、一条条新闻将继续让人心里没底。
 
所以说——买入美国,正当时。我说的是我的个人账户。这场危机爆发之前,我的个人账户没投资任何股票,只持有美国国债。(这里说的是我的个人账户,不是我个人持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦股票,我持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦股票将全部用于慈善事业。)如果股价还这么便宜,我的个人账户中的股票仓位将很快达到 100%。
 
为什么?
 
我买股票遵循一个简单的规律:众人贪婪,我恐惧;众人恐惧,我贪婪。显而易见,当前的市场中充斥着恐慌情绪,就连经验丰富的投资者都感到了恐惧的侵袭。一方面,美国有些公司处于竞争劣势、背负着高杠杆,投资者对此类公司保持警惕无可厚非;另一方面,美国有很多公司经营状况良好、长期前景光明,投资者对这些公司感到恐慌毫无道理。从短期来看,好公司暂时陷入困难、盈利出现一时的下降完全是正常情况。把眼光拉长到 5 年、10 年、20 年以后,大多数美国大公司都将创造新的盈利记录。(注:这句话也适用于中国的好公司)
 
有一点,我一定要讲清楚:我无法预测股市的短期波动。一个月以后,一年以后,股市是能涨呢,还是能跌呢?我根本不知道。我只知道,在情绪翻多或经济好转之前,股市一定早已上涨,甚至是大涨了。如果你等待知更鸟的到来,你将错过整个春天。(If you wait for the robins, spring will be over.)
 
回顾几段历史:大萧条时期,1932 年 7 月 8 日,道指跌到 41 点,创下历史最低。此后,经济状况继续恶化。等到 1933 年 3 月富兰克林 D. 罗斯福就任总统,美国经济开始止跌回升,美国股市已上涨 30%。还有二战初期,美国在欧洲和太平洋战事不利,1942 年,美国股市触底。等到后来同盟国扭转局势,股市早已大涨。还有 1980 年代初期,当通货膨胀肆虐、破产潮来袭之时,正是买入股票的最佳时机。总之,坏消息是投资者的好朋友。它帮你创造机会,让你打折买入一份美国的未来。(注:这句话也适用于中国股市)
 
从长期来看,股市给投资者带来的一定是好消息。20 世纪,美国经历了两次世界大战,还在许多其他军事冲突中付出了沉重的代价。美国经历了大萧条,还经历了其他十几次大大小小的经济衰退和金融危机。美国经历过石油危机、经历过流感疫情、经历过总统因丑闻而辞职。然而,道指还是从 66 点上涨到 11,497 点。
 
一个世纪,这么大的涨幅,你可能觉得投资者不可能亏钱。亏钱的投资者确实有。有些投资者很不幸:当他们感到周围的气氛欢欣鼓舞时,他们买;当他们看到新闻头条感到紧张不安时,他们卖。
 
在当下,许多人持有现金等价物,自己觉得很放心。他们错了。从长期来看,现金实际上不能创造利润,只能贬值,是一种不值得长期持有的资产。为了缓解当前的危机,政府制定的一些政策很可能导致通胀加剧,从而加快现金的真实价值贬损的速度。
 
在今后十年,股票几乎必然跑赢现金,或许是远远跑赢。目前,有一部分投资者手中紧握现金,他们以为自己有能力在更好的时机到来之后,再把现金投资出去。这些投资者等待好消息带来的鼓励,他们应该听听韦恩·格雷茨基 (Wayne Gretzky) 的建议:“盯着球现在的位置,只能扑空。球将要去哪,我就去哪。”(I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.)
 
我不愿空谈股市。我再次强调,我不知道如何预测股市短期走势。有一家新开业的餐厅,位于一座银行大厦,它打出的广告是“Put your mouth where your money was.”(译注:这句广告词来自短语 put your money where your mouth is,意思是“言出必行、用行动证明自己的话、说到做到”)我愿学这家餐厅。今天,我说要买股票,我也用自己的钱买了股票。
 
译者:RanRan
 
解读:
 
时代背景:
 
2007年初源于美国的次贷危机(subprime crisis),迅速开始席卷美国、欧盟和日本等世界主要金融市场,引发全球性经济危机。在此期间,诸多声名煊赫的公司宣布破产,比如贝尔斯登、雷曼兄弟、北电网络公司、通用公司等。美国道琼斯工业指数在半年内迅速从14279(2007年10月11日)点暴跌至6440点(2009年3月9日),跌幅54.9%。巴菲特发表文章的2008年10月16日是8979点,一直到5个月后的2009年3月,美国股市真正到了底点并开始反弹。在此之后,美国股市经历了历史上最长的牛市,从2008年10月16日到10多年后的现在,道琼斯工业指数最多涨了359%。
 
 
 
此后道指运行情况统计如下:
 
 
 
从巴菲特发文后抄底到2020年初的涨幅为229.3%。如果按照最低点算起,上涨了359.13%。
 
金融危机,对于很多人来说无异于是一场灾难,但对于股神巴菲特来说,却是又一次千载难逢的投资良机。2008年次贷危机过后,人们惊讶地发现,股神从这次危机中赚取了超100亿美元,回报率40%,远超同期美国政府救助陷入困境的企业所获得的12%收益。
 
这些收益全部来自于他在次贷危机期间所做的救助性质的投资活动:对玛氏糖果旗下箭牌公司65亿美元的贷款,获利38亿美元。投资高盛集团50亿美元的优先股,获利17.5亿美元。投资美国银行50亿美元的优先股,获利9亿美元。对通用电气30亿美元的注资,获利12亿美元。购买陶氏化学30亿美元股票,获 利10亿美元。对瑞士再保险集团投资27亿美元,获利14亿美元。总投资额高达252亿美元,总收益超100亿美元,目前仍在不断增长中。
 
巴菲特说过:“我们的重点在于试图寻找到那些在通常情况下未来10年、或者15年、或者20年后的企业经营情况是可以预测的企业。”正是这一原则,促使巴菲特更关注投资对象的未来成长性而不是短期行为……
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